Friday, August 2, 2019

Description of scenario 2


We’ll start our first alternate, balance gainer and loser daily. This scenario starts by looking at the closing price of the five coins we’ve focused on; BTC, ETH, LTE, BCH, and XRP. It compares these to the previous day’s close and computes the percentage change. It identifies the biggest gainer (or smallest loser if all are down).  It also identifies the smallest gainer (or biggest loser if all are down).  Next we sell some of the biggest gainer and use the funds to buy as much of the biggest loser as we can. The amount of money involved is 50% of the amount gained by the biggest gainer. (Note: if all are gainers, the smallest gainer is considered biggest loser.)

Let’s start with data from 2019-Q1. Following is a chart with the percentage changes for the 1st 4 days.

Date
%BTC
%ETH
%LTC
%BCH
%XRP
Sell Coin
Buy Coin
Orig $ Request
1/2/2019
2.08%
9.75%
3.99%
4.05%
2.43%
ETH
BTC
$97.21
1/3/2019
-3.16%
-4.55%
-4.10%
-6.24%
-5.05%
BTC
BCH
$33.69
1/4/2019
1.00%
4.42%
1.28%
-0.22%
0.58%
ETH
BCH
$44.08

On January 2nd, the 5 coins all gained over their closing price from January 1st. The biggest gainer was ETH and the smallest gainer was BTC (considered biggest loser).  Therefore, we’ll sell some ETH and use the cash from the sale to buy some BTC. The “Orig $ Request” is the amount of cash that we’ll use to compute the number of ETH coins to sell. Following is a chart listing the trades for the 3 days.

Date
Coin
Action
# Coins
Coin Price
Net
Cash Flow
Coin Balance
Cash Balance
1/2/2019
ETH
Sell
0.6209
$156.57
$97.07
$97.07
13.3774
$97.07
1/2/2019
BTC
Buy
0.0245
$3,961.01
$97.07
-$97.07
0.5391
$0.00
1/3/2019
BTC
Sell
0.0088
$3,835.86
$33.64
$33.64
0.5304
$33.64
1/3/2019
BCH
Buy
0.2086
$160.99
$33.64
-$33.64
12.3102
$0.00
1/4/2019
ETH
Sell
0.2825
$156.04
$44.01
$44.01
13.0949
$44.01
1/4/2019
BCH
Buy
0.2736
$160.64
$44.01
-$44.01
12.5838
$0.00


For each day there are 2 trades, the sell, then the buy. The “Net” is the product of the # coins times price minus the transaction fee. You’ll notice the “Net” involved is slightly less than the “Orig $ Request”. That is the impact of the trading fees. The next 2 days turn out to show days where all were down in price or mixed.

I’ll be discussing this approach in the next few posts. Follow me on Twitter @billlanke to know when the posts are made.

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