MLB League Championship wager suggestions

My last two posts dealt with betting on the division series. I used fivethirtyeight.com’s probabilities of each team advancing, the Kelly criteria for sizing the bets, and the best odds I could find to suggest 4 wagers. It turned out that 3 of the 4 were losers with only the Cubs coming through. Let’s assume you had set aside $1,000 as your bankroll. Following are the wagers you would have made.

·         Indians $60 – loser.

·         Red Sox $13 – loser.

·         Diamondbacks $82 – loser

·         Cubs $47 – win $56.40

So now your bankroll is $901.40. So, let’s do the same for the league championships.

National	538 Prob	ML	Eur	Exp Ret	Kelly
Dodgers	60%	-190	1.526	$0.916	-16.0%
Cubs	40%	165	2.650	$1.060	3.6%
American	538 Prob	ML	Eur	Exp Ret	Kelly
Asros	57%	-170	1.588	$0.905	-16.1%
Yankees	43%	155	2.550	$1.097	6.2%

The two wagers recommended here are the Cubs 3.6% $32.45 to win $53.54, and the Yankees 6.2% $55.88 to win $86.82.

Looking ahead a bit, fivethirtyeight.com also have the probabilities of each of the 4 remaining teams to win the World Series. Here’s what that chart looks like.

World Series	538 Prob	ML	Eur	Exp Ret	Kelly
Dodgers	31%	180	2.800	$0.868	-7.3%
Asros	30%	225	3.250	$0.975	-1.1%
Yankees	20%	435	5.350	$1.070	1.6%
Cubs	18%	460	5.600	$1.008	0.2%

Here the wagers would be on the Yankees and/or Cubs, but at trivial amounts. So much for the wagering suggestions. Next week, I’ll post a Lending Club update. Follow me @billlanke on Twitter to know when this is posted.